• This year, a number of films have flopped at the box office, including “Elemental” and “The Flash.”
  • But new data suggests a turnaround may be in store with several highly-anticipated films on the way.
  • A social-media analysis from Diesel Labs points to possible success for “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” — here’s why.

Temperatures are rising all around the world, with one notable exception: the box office, where this year’s film openings have mostly been, at best, lukewarm. 

Aside from a handful of surprise outperformers like this spring’s Super Mario Bros.-themed movie, tentpole debuts like “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” which premiered June 30, have generally fallen short of analyst expectations.

But a new analysis of data sourced from multiple social-media platforms and prepared exclusively for Insider by Diesel Labs suggests that the forecast for the Hollywood box office could soon switch from cloudy to sunny — even as the industry battles its first dual strike scenario in more than six decades, with members of both SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America having walked off the job.

Social-media attention on forthcoming and recent film releases looks to be generally trending higher for titles like “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt. 1” versus the 2022 summer blockbuster films benchmark, Diesel Labs found. The company — which specializes in analyzing vast troves of data for media and entertainment firms — looked at the “volume of attention” on movies ahead of their launches. 

Foto: Diesel Labs/www.diesellabs.com

Diesel Labs pulls data from major social and video platforms to assess how social-media buzz about these films is doing as their premieres draw closer, counting down the number of days till each one debuts. The chart, which was generated on July 19, shows that each movie has enjoyed a spike in online conversations leading up to its respective launch — but some have had more traction than others.

Now, all eyes are on "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," which appear to be tracking above last summer's benchmark volume of social-media attention ahead of their releases this weekend. Together, the very distinct films have adopted the shared branding of "Barbenheimer," with some moviegoers planning a double feature to cram both in on the same day. 

"According to our estimates, we project that more than 200,000 moviegoers in North America will be enjoying an exciting same-day double feature of 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer,'" Michael O'Leary, president and CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners said in a statement Wednesday, citing "excellent word of mouth" on both films.

With the social-media activity around the dueling openings suggesting enthusiasm from audiences, distributors Warner Bros. ("Barbie") and Universal ("Oppenheimer") could be in for good news.

Meanwhile, "Mission Impossible," which premiered July 12, pulled in roughly $80 million domestically by the end of the past weekend, according to Rotten Tomatoes. That puts the sequel behind analyst expectations of about $90 million, the film reviews site said. That's "roughly average for an action thriller at this point in the series," says David A. Gross of the film consultancy Franchise Entertainment Research, according to Variety. And international markets looked good for Tom Cruise's latest spy adventure, Gross added.

Some industry watchers expect "M:I's" revenue to keep climbing as its second weekend at the cinema draws closer. 

One movie that tracked below last year's benchmark volume of attention was "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," Diesel Labs found — and its box office performance was similarly underwhelming. While the latest Indy installment recently surpassed $300 million worldwide, it's only just broken even with its production budget and has a long way to go before it's profitable, Screenrant said.

A hit-or-miss year for film openings, and ongoing Hollywood strikes may not help the box office rebound

This year, Pixar's "Elemental" and Marvel's "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania," both of which were produced by Disney, did poorly, as did "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" and "The Flash" from Warner Bros.

Universal's "Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken," which opened on June 30, experienced such a tepid response at the box office (it earned about $34 million worldwide) that it's already been fast-tracked for viewers at home to rent or purchase via streaming.

Stronger performers included "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" and Disney's live-action remake of "The Little Mermaid." The former was released in April, and the latter released the following month.

In spite of the hopeful signs for imminent film openings, another wild card has emerged in Hollywood that could complicate any possible box office rebound: the SAG-AFTRA strike that started last week, which adds to existing tensions unleashed by the Writers Guild of America's work stoppage that started in May.

Under their respective unions' rules, neither actors nor writers are permitted to promote their projects during the strikes. With actors protesting on the picket lines instead of promoting on the red carpets or morning shows, it remains to be seen whether ticket sales will be affected.

Now, Hollywood is hoping for an explosive turnaround for the summer movie season with films like "Oppenheimer," director Christopher Nolan's look at the life of the scientist most closely associated with the creation of the atomic bomb during World War II. Boxoffice Pro on Wednesday said the period piece could open domestically at anywhere from $52 million to $72 million.

But even with the burst that may come from "Barbie" director Greta Gerwig's all-pink tribute to the world's most iconic doll — it's expected to open between $140 million and $175 million, according to Boxoffice Pro — it may be too soon to put on rose-colored glasses just yet. 

At the London premiere of "Oppenheimer" on July 13, actors including Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, and Rami Malek walked out early to show solidarity with their union. And, if their decision serves as any harbinger for what to expect during the rest of the summer season, our thermostats may still be poised to shatter more records than any film at the box office.